By Saman Rizwan
The G7 countries have agreed to stiffen sanctions against Russia, with the group’s members vowing to starve the Russian war machine. “We are now focused on shutting the door on loopholes and continuing to cut Russia off from critical supplies”, President of the European Council Charles Michel remarked at the summit—yet there is a major loophole inside the bloc itself.
Bulgaria has, shockingly, not implemented any of the sanctions that the EU has imposed on Russian individuals and companies since the invasion of Crimea. Conversely, Hungary, often accused of being in the Kremlin’s pocket has shown leadership on this issue. Hungary has frozen more than €900 million in Russian assets, sending a signal across Eastern Europe.
“It is not surprising that Bulgaria does not seem to apply EU sanctions against individuals and companies from the Russian Federation”, argued Ruslan Stefanov from the Bulgarian think tank CSD. “It is obvious that the Bulgarian authorities do not dare, do not want […] to apply the sanctions”.
While Bulgarian Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev announced earlier this month that he is opening an investigation into the failure to impose sanctions, in reality he has played a significant role in preserving the status quo which has given Moscow elites a foothold in the country.
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Bulgaria’s corroded rule of law
There is a poetic irony in Geshev opening an investigation into why Bulgaria has not enforced Russian sanctions, given that he himself stands accused of contributing to the corrosion of the rule of law in Bulgaria. His own actions, ranging from attacks on journalists to relentless efforts to keep his political allies in power despite their rampant corruption, have perpetuated a state of weak institutions and graft which has given an opening to Moscow.
Geshev has a flair for the dramatic—images recently circulated of a press conference he held where he ripped up this letter of resignation pugnaciously stating that he would finish his mandate of 7 years and that he was suffering political persecution. Most, however, would argue that others are suffering persecution under his mandate.
Free and independent journalists have been a particular target of Geshev’s ire. Since Geshev came into office, investigative journalists have landed in the crosshairs of institutional retaliation. This month, he has even gone so far as to accuse leading journalists of being involved in a supposed Kafkaesque plot to attack him with a car bomb. The aftermath of the alleged explosion which he says was aimed to kill him has been categorized by Asen Vailev – co-founder of anti-corruption party Continuing the Change – as something which looked like someone was trying to “scare rabbits,” not kill someone.
Private companies, too, have suffered under his tenure in order to serve his political aims, with the American ambassador ringing alarm bells as well, saying "We hear stories about businesses that are targeted by powerful individuals. They use the institutions to harass, to intimidate, to extort opponents.”
Examples abound: high-profile scandals like the Eight Dwarfs case have worried investors, after a Bulgarian entrepreneur fled the country after unmasking fraud, allegedly linked to the prosecution's coordinated takeover of a private company. More recently, popular FinTech firm Nexo was targeted by a probe which Geshev justified on grounds of supposed financial improprieties, later rebuffed by authorities. To make matters worse, it seems that the real impetus for the raids was Nexo’s ties to the political opposition, as several employees donated to a pro-Western opposition party—and, suspiciously, the probe took place just four days before Democratic Bulgaria was seen by many as likely to be tapped to form a government. It’s no surprise that Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev is now considering suing the state for up to $1 billion in damages.
This kind of prosecution with thinly veiled political colouring strikes yet another blow to Bulgarians’ trust in the authorities, which is already at historic lows. Following the country’s fifth parliamentary election in two years at the beginning of April, Andrej Hunko, head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, warned that Bulgarians “now expect their elected representatives to […] form a government and address people’s needs. This would be a first step towards re-establishing trust in political institutions and society at all levels which is essential in a democratic society.”
The country’s issues with corruption, rule of law, institutional transparency, and political accountability as well as the freedom of press due to a very concentrated ownership structure all contribute to an abraded public trust in state institutions. A shocking example is the approval rating of the Bulgarian National Assembly—currently at a mere 7%.
SOFIA, BULGARIA - JANUARY 31: The National assembly building(R) and Alexander Nevsky Cathedral on ... [+]
An act of misdirection
As such, in this climate of mistrust and weak institutions, Russian influence flourishes. In recent years, the anti-democratic, conspiratorial worldview promoted by Moscow has steadily taken hold in Bulgaria, shifting the narrative at key moments in favour of the Kremlin. An NGO report, for example, shows a sudden and near tenfold increase in pro-Russian news articles before the 24th of February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Russians operating in Bulgaria through politics, media and institutions, Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev explained, “see Bulgaria as easy prey”—in large part due to the corrupt regime which enablers like Geshev have kept in power. Geshev may suddenly be feigning interest in investigating why Bulgaria has failed to implement any of the EU’s post-Crimea sanctions, but given his track record, the investigation appears to amount to little more than a meaningless gesture to assure Bulgarians that their democracy is in supposed safe hands.
Geshev and the politicians that he has helped keep in office have created a political environment steeped in corruption which has slowly eaten away at Bulgaria's democracy and left it vulnerable to Russian influence. If he wants to understand why the country has been too soft on Moscow in terms of its sanctions policy, he should first look at how he himself has perpetuated the status quo that has given Moscow an opening to exploit. Unfortunately, such clear leadership has been lacking.
