Women Voters Were Underestimated. Again.

“Once again it’s the women who saved us,” Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief of Staff in the Obama Administration said in post-midterm election coverage on MSNBC on November 9, 2022. “And the polls were wrong, again,” he added.

The predictive models, conventional pundits and analysts got this midterm election wrong, in large part because they underestimated women voters. Again. It’s almost like they ignored all the factors that make this election night different from any other. And most of those differences relate to how women decide, and women’s realities.

The predictive models used by conventional pundits said that the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade taking away abortion rights from American women across the nation would not make a material difference in this election. Instead, those “experts” harped on inflation and the costs at the grocery store and at the gas pump.

But the models didn’t account for the mothers who counseled their daughters to choose a college in a state where abortion was still legal, just in case, as Joy Reid said on MSNBC in post-election coverage on November 9th. They didn’t account for the women voters who were deleting their menstruation apps from their phones out of fear of the abortion bans, since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

“Women voters are a force to be reckoned with in the midterms….The biggest story of this election could be women voters, who are poised to upset historical norms and determine the outcome in many states, says Andrea Hailey, CEO of Vote.org,’ Andrea Hailey wrote on MSNBC on election day.

Abortion rights as an economic issue

The polls didn’t measure abortion and reproductive rights as the economic issue that it is for women. Having a child is expensive, in time and treasure. We know that 2 million women left their jobs during the height of the pandemic in part to care for their kids who had to do remote schooling or homeschooling, for example, and that women are still the primary caregiving parent.

A recent Brookings Institution study found that it costs over $310,000 to raise a child today in the United States, including housing, food, transportation, clothing and healthcare, not to mention extras like Christmas and birthday presents,

“Voters also rejected the false narrative that too often treats women and the issues they care about as separate from the economy”

“There can be no question that abortion was on the ballot this midterm election. Last night, we witnessed major victories for women and all those who respect liberty,” the National Partnership for Women and Families said in a post-election press release.

“Voters across the country raised their voices and declared that access to abortion is inextricably linked with our overall quality of life. In this sense, not only was abortion on the ballot. The values of freedom and respect for the autonomy and dignity of all people were on the ballot as well. And the results were clear, unequivocal, and resounding,” the National Partnership added.

This is the point that now-Governor-elect of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro made in his closing argument to voters, when he said in part that “freedom” is having control over your own body. It apparently worked, because he won the state by a wide margin, against a man who said that women who get an abortion should be charged with murder.

“Voters also rejected the false narrative that too often treats women and the issues they care about as separate from the economy — or that the goals to grow our economy and strengthen women’s economic stability are in conflict with each other. We have long said that women, who are the majority voting bloc and a major driver of our economy, do not live their lives in silos. They do not see their economic security as separate from their ability to control their reproductive health,” the National Partnership’s post-election press release emphasized.

The “fear” that women voters seem to have voted on was not the one the polls and pundits thought it would be

These polling models and pundits said that the forces driving the election were inflation and crime – fear of rising prices and of being a victim of crime. Everyone understands that the cost of groceries and gas are higher at the moment, frustratingly so. Wages have gone up but not as much as inflation has, so there’s still a gap.

Though clearly many people, including women, voted with inflation in mind, based on the results so far – including where abortion rights-related measures were on this election’s ballots and ended up favoring rights – most women voters chose defending their bodily autonomy and the freedoms that accompany it over voting to protest an increase in the price of milk (which might even be temporary).

Abortion rights was a big voting issue for Latina women too, studies found, which seems to have helped Democrats as well.

Women voters were “brushed off” once inflation became a focus

Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution, told USA Today that “analysts and pollsters underestimated the impact of abortion rights in driving the vote.” She said she is consistently surprised at how women still get treated as a minority of voters when in fact, women are” 52% of the U.S. population, accounted for 55% of the last presidential electoral vote and are evenly distributed across the country.”

“This understanding of the women’s vote was incredibly, and weirdly, brushed off as soon as people started saying they cared about inflation…The polling here was really screwy,” Kamarck told USA Today.

It’s frustrating that in 2022 women continue to be underestimated across the economy, even when we’re the decisive vote or decision maker.