The Future Of School? ‘Brownouts.’

All indications suggest the U.S. will soon face a massive teacher shortage. A potent combination of expected and early retirements, burnout, and waning interest in the profession among young people may leave us short by several hundred thousand teachers in the coming years. We have no viable plan for addressing this. As a result, the coming teacher shortage will lead – inevitably and very soon – to school ‘brownouts.’

Brownouts typically refer to a drop in voltage in an electrical supply system leading to partial power outages. We’ll soon become familiar with the term in a new context as schools experience partial teacher outages. The writing is clearly on the wall, er chalkboard:

· 48% of teachers are considering leaving their job and 34% are considering leaving the profession entirely

· 55% say they will retire earlier than planned – nearly double the figure from just two years ago

· Teachers and principals are experiencing stress at twice the rate of the general U.S. working population

· And there’s not a large enough new teacher pipeline to fill the gaps with education degrees awarded in the U.S. dropping 22% between 2006 and 2019.

Putting an education futurist hat on, it’s possible to imagine where all this is headed. Schools will be forced to cope with teacher shortages in a number of ways including shortening school weeks, school days and turning to more virtual learning for students. The current schedule and classroom logistics of school will be forever changed. Welcome to the era of school brownouts.

When schools run out of teachers, it will require creative scheduling to keep things running. Short of teachers in general and particularly in certain subjects, schools will require existing teachers to teach more subjects and/or outsource certain subjects to alternative online solutions. No science teachers? Perhaps the math teacher can teach the subject or maybe we assign students to science classes outside of school, online.

Shortages will also result in teachers being asked to teach across more grades or age groups. Instead of a math teacher for each of 6^th, 7^th and 8^th grades in a middle school, for example, one will teach all grades. Or perhaps 8^th grade math will be taught entirely online. This, ultimately, will mean the shortening of physical in-school time for students.

Teachers may still work a full week and schools may still be open 5 days a week during the school year – but it will likely include roving days for cohorts of students. Some may come on a Monday, Wednesday, half-day Friday schedule; others a Tuesday, Thursday, half-day Friday schedule. For older students capable of doing more classes online, it may mean fewer days and hours in school that younger students. Sure, students can take online classes while in a physical school building. But this will still require proctors or other adults who can monitor or assist – and even staffing of this nature will be a challenge. (Many schools already struggle to find substitute teachers and youth leagues around the country face referee shortages – jobs that require far less qualification than teaching.)

In a more hopeful view of the coming school brownouts, it may lead to solutions where the absolute best/most dynamic teachers end up teaching more students. Somewhere in the country there is a teacher who is truly the best at teaching 6^th grade science, for example. Why not scale his or her classroom to thousands of students online – not just the dozens in their own physical classroom? Brownouts may also create an opportunity to add more work-integrated learning opportunities for students. On days not in school, students can work or intern. But the cons far outweigh the pros.

How will parents and caretakers cope with this and what will it ultimately mean for students? Well, we’ve had the recent example of the pandemic to give us an idea. There will likely be a widening of the gap between the educational haves and have nots. Access to high-speed Internet, updated computer equipment and at-home parental support will be significant and ongoing issues for far too many students.

The biggest problem with a coming teacher shortage is that there is no quick fix. It is fundamentally a human talent development pipeline issue. And that requires years – and in some cases decades – to change. Yes, we can and should raise teacher pay. Yes, we will need to consider (unfortunately) creating faster pathways to teaching that shorten preparation and lower standards. It will be a mix of ‘too little, too late’ and short-sighted attempts to improve things. In the meantime, we will all need to get creative and prepare to embrace uncertainty and change in our educational system.