Here’s Where Abortion Rights Are On The Ballot In The Midterms

Topline

Tuesday’s midterm elections could have a significant impact on what the landscape of abortion policies in the U.S. looks like in light of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade—here’s what to watch for as election results roll in.

An abortion rights activist holds a sign at a protest in support of abortion access on July 13, in ... [+] Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

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Key Facts

Ballot measures: California, Vermont and Michigan have ballot measures that ask voters to approve protections for abortion rights that would ensure the procedure remains legal, while Kentucky’s ballot measure would explicitly state its constitution does not protect abortion rights, and Montana’s more narrow initiative would punish healthcare workers who don’t provide medical care to infants who are “born alive” after failed abortions.

Congress: Keeping a Democratic majority in Congress and electing a Senate majority willing to overturn the filibuster would make it likely Democrats could pass legislation enshrining abortion rights in federal law, while Republicans could move forward with a federal abortion ban if they regain control—races to watch that will determine Senate control will be in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Gubernatorial races: Races for the governors’ seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona will be among the most influential for abortion rights, as Democratic governors in those states could thwart attempts by GOP-controlled legislatures to enact new abortion restrictions, while Democrats will face longer odds challenging anti-abortion governors in Florida, Georgia, Texas and Ohio.

Attorneys general: Attorneys general are tasked with enforcing their states’ abortion laws, and races will be particularly important in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin—the latter two of which have pre-Roe abortion bans on the books that the Democratic incumbents have refused to enforce—as well as in Iowa, whose Democratic attorney general has defended abortion rights against the state’s other conservative leadership.

State legislatures: Abortion rights advocates are trying to flip state legislatures in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire to protect abortion rights, as well as stave off GOP supermajorities in Kentucky, North Carolina and Wisconsin so lawmakers can’t override Democratic governors’ vetoes on abortion bills.

State Supreme Courts: State Supreme Courts can block or uphold abortion bans under state law and 86 state justice seats are on the ballot; the Brennan Center for Justice identified Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio as states where interest is particularly high, as the party that controls each court could flip, and Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, New Mexico and Kansas—whose Supreme Court justices have previously defended abortion rights—will also be states to watch.

Big Number

66%. That’s the share of registered voters who say abortion is “extremely” or “very” important to their vote in the midterms, according to a Gallup poll conducted October 3 to October 20. While abortion has been viewed as a key motivating factor for turning out voters in the midterms—particularly Democrats who back abortion rights—other more recent polling has suggested the issue is starting to slip in voters’ minds. Support for Michigan’s abortion ballot measure declined by six percentage points between September and October, and a CBS News/YouGov poll found a five-percentage-point drop in the share of voters who said abortion is “very important” to their vote between September and October (from 59% to 54%).

What We Don’t Know

How abortion rights will actually fare in the midterms. Current polling projects Republicans likely have a stronger shot at regaining control of Congress than Democrats do at keeping it, and while Democrats are likely to win gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania and Michigan, races in Arizona and Wisconsin appear too close to call so far. It also remains to be seen how accurate polling will be at capturing voters’ enthusiasm for abortion rights: In Kansas, for instance, the state’s abortion ballot measure in August ended up failing in a landslide vote—protecting abortion rights in the state—despite July polling suggesting the measure would narrowly pass.

Key Background

Abortion has been widely viewed as a key issue in the midterms in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in June, which led to a series of states outlawing the procedure. Democratic strategists have widely viewed protecting abortion rights as a primary motivating factor to get the party’s base to turn out to the polls, and many contentious races have centered on the candidates’ differing policies on abortion. As recent polling suggests that voters have become less interested in abortion and focused more on the economy in recent weeks, Democrats have been trying to recapture interest on abortion, with President Joe Biden delivering a speech in October that promised to make sending legislation protecting abortion rights to Congress his first priority if Democrats keep control.

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