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Being able to consistently complete projects on time within budget is no small feat. In fact, it’s an admirable leadership quality that eludes many experienced professionals. Too often leaders establish due dates at the beginning of a project that seem perfectly reasonable, but then there are unexpected delays—a supplier delivers a key component late, a simple task proves to be not so simple and consumes twice as much time as anticipated, a key resource takes an unexpected vacation, etc. Each of these little mishaps can easily turn a quick six-month project into a painful year-long project or worse.
While unforeseen events and risk in general are unavoidable, there are ways to mitigate risk by improving task estimating. Indeed, overall project duration estimates are the culmination of individual task estimates so improving task estimating is arguably the key to completing projects on time. The real question of course is…how do you improve task estimating?
There’s actually a really simple two-part technique that project managers and leaders can use to significantly improve task estimating. Here’s how it works.
Allow the task owner to define the task duration
Although this might seem standard, very often it’s not done. Leaders often suggest or propose task due dates/duration estimates in the interest of speeding up the planning process, and that’s a critical mistake. Those closest to the work should estimate how long the work will take. Having other colleagues, leaders or even worse, executives pontificate about how long they think a task should take is simply a recipe for disaster and disappointment. Instead, make a habit of empowering the task owner and the task owner alone to propose a reasonable task due date. They don’t just have the best understanding of the task itself and what’s required to accomplish it; they also have full knowledge of their schedule, potential risks on the horizon, concerns about partners/suppliers, etc. Of course, if they propose an estimate that seems unrealistic, overly padded or otherwise problematic, talk it through with them to better understand their rationale and offer additional support as needed, but the estimate should ultimately come from those closest to the work.
Ask the task owner to provide a best/most likely/worst case estimate
When asking the task owner for an estimate, don’t just ask for a specific number—three months, two weeks, five days, etc. Instead, also ask them to share the best/worst case estimate. This is important because it provides critical context for their estimate. For example, if your developer quotes four weeks to develop an app, you don’t really know if that four-week estimate is actually a best case pipe dream (assuming everything goes perfectly and there are no surprises along the way), an overly conservative worst case estimate or somewhere in between. If you ask the developer for a best and worst case, she might explain that if she cleared her schedule and received all requirements immediately, she could complete the work in one week, but conversely if multiple rounds of testing are required, her task could take two months. That additional context is critically important not just for determining the final task estimate to be used in the overall project schedule but more importantly to help identify real risks or opportunities to be discussed and addressed during project planning. It’s so much better to learn about these very real time-delay risks early in the process so they can be mitigated, and certainly this knowledge equips the leader to define a project schedule that is indeed realistic.
This simple two-part technique can mean the difference between defining a due date that’s realistic and sound or one that’s a pipe dream at best. Don’t be tempted to select a due that “seems” reasonable but isn’t really based on any sound input. Take the time to engage with task owners to understand the elemental components of the project schedule. Remember, you’d much rather take the time to understand these nuances around potential delays (or conversely expedite opportunities) before work begins instead of having them surprise you throughout the project.
