Tricky Terrain Ahead
“The opportunities are yours for the taking!”
“Beware of cutbacks.”
“Business is booming!”
“A recession is looming.”
Who’s right? In today’s volatile and uncertain times, it’s hard to know which perspective is correct. This is a confusing moment to be looking for a new job or considering a career shift. For months, we’ve been reading about the abundance of opportunities for employees and the new negotiating power they have. While much of that is still true, the environment is clearly starting to shift in some cases.
Many companies are contracting. Netflix, the streaming sensation of the pandemic, announced earlier this month that it was cutting another 300 jobs due to subscriber shrinkage. As the Los Angeles Times reported, the layoffs mostly hit North America, though other regions were targeted as well. Impacted positions ranged from individual contributors to senior executives. Indeed, this is part of a larger global trend. For example, The Economic Times noted that India-based B2B ecommerce firm Udaan just laid off five percent of its workforce.
Does this mean it’s not time to transition to tech, say?
Not according to The New York Times reporter Shira Ovide, who wrote earlier this month, “The job market at technology companies, and for people with high-tech skills, is on fire and staying that way — at least for now.” The unemployment rate for high-tech jobs, as she put it, ranges from “dinky to nonexistent.”
Two things are clear amidst these seeming contradictions: it may be a little harder to find your dream job now than it was earlier in the year. And if you do interview for a role you want, you may have less leverage when negotiating things like salary and work schedule.
Still, you can take steps to rise and thrive even in this uncertain moment. Navigating these changing times requires a two-fold approach—analyzing the external reality and looking inward to clarify your priorities and goals. Here’s how:
Assess the Risks Around You
Do some homework: Your opportunities are affected by factors beyond your sphere of influence, but you can control how educated you are about what’s happening around you.
Start by asking some hard questions about the sectors and companies that interest you. If this downturn slides into a recession, it’s worth considering which sectors are likely to stay strong. The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the fastest growing jobs, and these point to strong industries as a whole. Green technology and clean energy, entertainment, healthcare, IT, social work and mental health are projected to grow over the next decade or so. Brick-and-mortar retail? Not on the list.
Most large, established companies aren’t going to go under in a recession, but they may have layoffs. For example, as noted in MorningBrew, Wells Fargo cut hundreds of employees in April, and JPMorgan just laid off 1000 staff members in its home-lending division. With a larger, established firm, it’s worth analyzing the revenue stream and determining things like whether it has long-term government funding (which would make it more able to last in an economic downturn). Can you get information about the firm’s recent hiring rates? If there are too many employees, a job there is more risky than at a company in need of more workers.
Start-ups can be riskier. If you’re interested in, or are currently employed by an early-stage start-up that relies on investor funding, find out what the cash burn rate is and how long that funding will last. What are the projected revenue sources and the forecasts for growth? Is there a robust backlog of work? How stable are key clients? You might be able to get this information from knowledgeable investors you know, people within the firm, or by doing some online research.
Consider your own risk tolerance: If you have a lot of savings and/or a partner with a solid job that affords you the luxury of a few months without work, should that happen, you may want to take a gamble on a great role within a fledgling firm. But if you hate to take risks and/or have no financial cushion, this is a good time to exercise caution and choose a place that can weather economic uncertainty.
If your current firm’s financials are shaky, look for a new role at a more solid firm sooner rather than later. I know one senior executive who just took a C-suite role at a medium-sized start-up, only to be convinced by search firms to seek a job at a larger, more secure company. His great role, according to these experts, may be too risky for this moment.
Reexamine Your Personal Goals
Keep your eye on your prize: One key to a rewarding career is getting the job you want and have a good shot at succeeding in, rather than jumping at every opportunity that comes along. The greatest position isn’t right if it isn’t a good fit for you. Even in the best of times, one person’s ideal role might be your worst-case scenario. In a downturn, movement can be more difficult. This makes it more important than ever to get clear about your goals and priorities now, at this stage of your life, and go for them.
Go toward what you want, not away from what you don’t: If you decide you want to leave your current role or field, focus on going toward something you desire, rather than merely escaping a position that feels too limited. This is especially important if you plan to be in the new role for a while. Having a positive goal in mind creates energy, which you’ll need to network, send out resumes, and go on interviews. A positive vision of what you want also generates enthusiasm and creativity, both of which will make you more appealing to potential employers and more able to recognize opportunities and seize on serendipitous encounters.
Rebuild your network: In good times and bad, tapping into your professional and social network is often the way to find great opportunities. Most of us “spent down” our social capital during the pandemic. This is a great time to rebuild it. Reach out to people in industry and alumni groups. Get together for coffee or an afterwork drink. Join a professional organization, or if you belong to one already, attend some meetings. If you want to change industries or sectors, investigate groups that might help you make more connections and learn about what's happening. Rebuilding your professional and social networks can be fun and may not feel like “work,” but doing so is an important part of crafting a career you love.
The Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “The only constant in life is change,” and this idea has felt particularly true over the last couple of years. But also true is this: you can still love your life and your career. Start by staying informed, focusing on your goals, and shoring up your stamina (more on this here).
