OVERLAND PARK, KANSAS - AUGUST 01: Signs in favor and against the Kansas Constitutional Amendment On ... [+]
Voters in Kansas decided to uphold a state constitutional right to abortion in a landslide defeat of an amendment that would repeal the protection. It marked the first statewide vote on abortion access following the Supreme Court ruling, which overturned Roe v. Wade. As several states are already set to have abortion-related questions on ballots later this year, the election was one to watch for gauging how abortion rights resonate at the polls. New research indicates that Kansas may not be alone in seeing abortion as a vote-moving issue.
The Kaiser Family Foundation has been monitoring voter interest in abortion access since February as a part of the organization’s health tracking poll. Now, following the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, 55% of those surveyed say access to abortion is “very important” to their vote in November’s midterm elections, up nine percentage points since February.
On the whole, 43% of respondents say the ruling has made them “more motivated” to vote, marking an uptick from a May survey. The increase is especially prevalent among key voting blocks. In February, half of Democrats indicated abortion as a top midterm voting issue. Now 77% say so.
In every presidential election since 1984, women have turned out to vote at higher rates than men. The gender gap in partisanship is long-standing as well, with women more likely to associate with the Democratic Party. According to the Kaiser findings, Democratic women voters are especially dialed into abortion access as a priority issue, with 72% citing so—up from 55% in February.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, abortion has seemingly become less critical as a voting priority for Republican women following the Supreme Court ruling. Whereas six in 10 republican women indicated abortion as a voting priority in February, just 44% do now.
Those partisan shifts could be significant come November as Democrats face persistent headwinds heading into the midterms. While inflation and gas prices continue to top the list of concerns for voters, abortion is right behind.
“Lower-turnout midterm elections can be a game of inches, and abortion could make a difference, especially if gas prices continue to fall,” Kaiser Family Foundation President and CEO Drew Altman said. “It’s motivating a lot of younger women to vote, and most Democrats, half of independents and even some Republicans plan to vote for candidates who support abortion access.”
Kentucky, California, Vermont, Montana and likely Michigan will ask voters to weigh in on abortion on ballots come November. In the meantime, President Biden is looking to make abortion an issue that brings voters—particularly women voters—to the polls nationwide.
“It’s my hope and strong belief that women will, in fact, turn out in record numbers to reclaim the rights that have [been] taken from them by the Court,” Biden said after signing an executive order to protect abortion access.
