NORTHEASTERN SYRIA - MAY 25: U.S. Army soldiers board a CH-47 Chinook helicopter while departing a ... [+]
The recent Iranian proxy attack in Syria, targeting US bases, highlights a crucial moment in the region's dynamics. Tehran has probed the political resolve of its formidable opponent in Syria, and thus far, the outcome of the test seems unlikely to dissuade Iran from launching additional proxy offensives.
On the night of March 23rd, a drone of Iranian origin targeted a US base in north-east Syria. In response, the US carried out airstrikes, killing fourteen pro-Iran fighters, as reported by a monitoring group. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said they had targeted "facilities used by groups affiliated with... [the] IRGC," marking the first time an attack on US bases in Syria resulted in a casualty.
The inability of the base’s air defense systems to prevent Iran's kamikaze drone attack raises questions.
The attack's timing is significant. High-level US military visits to the region and China-forged diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia preceded the strike. Iranian strategists may perceive these events as signs of US weakness in the Middle East and Syria. The attack highlights the need for the US to adapt its strategy and respond to shifting power balances.
Context of the Attack
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA - OCTOBER 28: U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley ... [+]
The recent high-level visits by the US military, including the US' top general Mark Milley, have potentially raised concerns among Iran's leadership — and Turkey— about a renewed US commitment to the region.
Following an unannounced visit to a base in the country's northeast to meet with US troops, Army General Milley asserted that the nearly eight-year-old US deployment to Syria for combating Islamic State remains a risk worth taking.
The Chinese-brokered diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has introduced an additional layer of complexity to the regional landscape. The driving force behind the Iranian proxy attack is a combination of fear and perceived US weakness in Syria.
The Iranian attack transpired during a moment when the US appeared vulnerable in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. The US presence in the country draws criticism not only from Russia and Iran but also from Turkey, a NATO partner. The US' failure to secure Turkey's cooperation highlights the perceived weakness of American political resolve in the eyes of Iran.
Fragmented US Strategy
Furthermore, the US strategy in Syria suffers from fragmentation. Washington has been unable to successfully link its anti-Islamic State efforts with its anti-Assad and anti-Iranian objectives within the country. This fragmentation becomes evident when the US allows Turkish authorities to use airspace to target members of the US-allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and refrains from extending any political recognition to the Kurdish-led, US-backed groups. As a result, this mix of perceived weakness and strategic fragmentation leaves the US exposed in the region and susceptible to further Iranian proxy attacks.
The Iranian Proxy Attack
The assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 further strained US-Iran relations, leading Iran to vow retaliation. While Iran has made symbolic moves, they have not been able to carry through their threats as strongly as they had threatened.
Iran likely interpreted President Biden's remarks after the attack, in which he stated that the US does not want to seek conflict with Iran, as a sign of weakness. This defensive stance does not deter Iran, leaving the US vulnerable to future attacks.
Asserting a bold stance, Keyvan Khosravi, the spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council, addressed the US retaliation on March 25th. He stated, "Any pretext to attack bases established at the request of the Syrian government to combat terrorism and Daesh [Islamic State, IS] within that nation's borders will be met with an immediate response."
Approximately 900 US troops operate in southern and eastern Syria, as part of the US-led global coalition against the Islamic State (IS).
Consequences of the US's Defensive Position
As the US remains in a defensive position without a coherent strategy, more Iranian attacks in Syria could be expected.
Rectifying the fragmentation in the US approach to Syria is essential for the administration, as various entities pursue disjointed strategies.
Developing a clear strategy that connects anti-IS, anti-Assad, and anti-Iran efforts is crucial for the US to regain its footing in the region and effectively counter future Iranian attacks.
